A pharmaceutical company. currently paying a dividend of Tk. 2.50

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A pharmaceutical company. currently paying a dividend of Tk. 2.50. This dividend is expected to grow at a rate of 10% a year for the next five years, followed by a growth rate of 8% a year for the next three years. After 8 years the dividend is expected to grow at the rate of 6% forever. The required rate to return for this stock is 15%. What is the intrinsic value of the stock?

To calculate the intrinsic value of a multi-stage growth stock, we break the process into three distinct phases:

  1. Calculate expected dividends for Years 1 through 8.
  2. Find the Present Value (PV) of all dividends received during Years 1–8.
  3. Calculate the Terminal Value (3c3d23b6 d60f 444c 9286 0806a28349c5) at the end of Year 8 using the Gordon Growth Model and discount it back to Present Value.

1. Given Information

  • Current Dividend (1f544b61 1dbe 4315 9eeb 8e8121bf140c): Tk. 2.50
  • Growth Rate Phase 1 (4e4789b9 c75f 4a7d 9811 c3542540a0d2, Years 1–5): 10% or d96cb78f fb36 4ec3 8a71 ee94e695f10d
  • Growth Rate Phase 2 (9eee0ada c7ba 41fe ab89 09b781b7b4ad, Years 6–8): 8% or cf69c501 8ce7 4fd7 90d8 5f6e19e84f86
  • Terminal Growth Rate (ff58009c a06d 4e60 baef 67f0dc6c5f6b, Year 9+): 6% or 6fc2cbe1 7334 4566 a347 2e2695da75d5
  • Required Rate of Return (aa5b2b4a 5030 4161 9661 dc19ec14d427): 15% or 914243c5 95ea 44a7 a75a dfc6c70bb5c0

2. Step-by-Step Calculations

Step A: Forecast Dividends and Discount to Present Value (c475a31d a6a1 4369 8fba cee8ec49ef8e)

image 126
  • Phase 1 (Growth = 10%):
    • f77fca05 9429 4faf b19f bf329fb60c4a = 4a1452a7 6741 4d5b b49c a51c941e9f0d
    • f1f3e75d 7a73 43de 8f61 512440ab4b32 = c2b7705c 973f 4860 b629 35e6d9d44312
    • f5f31f62 eba0 4d8d 8e8b 319b95c9560a = e4bf45cd 0b97 4a67 8827 55573d24e845
    • d4885ef5 c775 4f93 a9ce 0debe2e45b72 = 204a8e27 f1e7 47c0 81a9 51917f89b92f
    • 3ee8197e 2814 4491 a691 a94febc4e80b = 11afd2a8 412e 4da7 9061 e18fadf64a32
  • Phase 2 (Growth = 8%):
    • 671aa595 4d07 4af3 afeb f66791f18f46 = f7ea0ab3 9c49 465a ab26 7f5380313b08
    • 91e5ffd0 37ce 42b3 af53 d06b514c2747 = afb224ad 5c0f 47d7 8f4f c3eddd0d4c9a
    • 78fc9e9c b810 4367 b8af e39998b74e6a = 5fbc9abb d2c9 48ba 9385 73c2971d168c
image 127

Step B: Terminal Value Calculation (c9547881 8cc4 4895 9f29 e657d231d04d)

  1. Calculate 37de217a 42ad 4713 aeaa b6a094d14493 (Constant growth of 6% starting Year 9):
image 129
  1. Calculate Terminal Price at Year 8 (d210f393 88fd 485a afd5 d910656c77e4):
image 131
  1. Discount bbd73d10 8cd5 43d9 8296 7e34bf5dfeba back to Present Value (56129a79 378b 4645 abbb faf15c032b78 of f23a0e95 3cd1 4bd6 a020 e4b433805f31):
image 128

3. Final Intrinsic Value (6b87dd2d 8051 4ff6 a619 af98ec13e03a)

image 130
image 132

Conclusion

The intrinsic value of the stock is Tk. 35.79.

আর্টিকেলের শেষ কথাঃ A pharmaceutical company. currently paying a dividend of Tk. 2.50. This dividend is expected to grow at a rate of 10% a year for the next five years

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